Deterrence in South Asia: A case study of prospects of war between Pakistan & India

Abstract

Two competing arguments exist regarding possibility of war in the presence of nuclear weapons. According to optimists, nukes have stabilizing affect due to high cost. The pessimists however do not rule out chances of occurrence of war due to possible irrationality, offensive nature of military, miscommunication, miscalculation, and absence of second-strike capability etc. This study aims at testing these arguments and assessing the prospects of war between two South Asian nuclear states such as India and Pakistan, amidst post Pulwama tense environment. It also develops a unique triangular model of extended deterrence among three nuclear states, along with assessing traditional dyadic relationship between the two nuclear states.