Fueling Resilience: Rethinking Pakistan's Energy Security in an Age of Geopolitical Shocks

Abstract

Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have highlighted the vulnerabilities of international energy supply chains, particularly the conflict between the United States and Iran in 2026. These external geopolitical shocks do not come alone; rather, they are accompanied by a whole lot of macroeconomic shocks in import-dependent countries like Pakistan, manifested as a balance of payments crisis, currency devaluation, and a rapidly snowballing circular debt. This article applies the Asia Pacific Energy Research Center (APERC) multidimensional energy security definition to the Pakistani system and resilience engineering paradigms to assess the system's exposure to hostilities in the Middle East. By systematically dissecting the macroeconomic transmission channels of global energy shocks, unpacking the infrastructural and fiscal constraints of Pakistan’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), and scrutinizing the adaptive strategies employed by European and East Asian states during recent crises, this paper argues that real energy resilience needs a paradigm shift. The article concludes with an all-inclusive agenda of structural reform measures in thirteen points. This is the framework for the unprecedented development of LNG regasification and deep-conversion refining facilities; the geoeconomic strategic maneuvering needed to make the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline a reality; and the push to completely localize solar and biomass technologies that rely on strategic partnerships with the People's Republic of China, which is the current technological leader and also a close ally of Pakistan.