Nexus of Centralization and Disaster Vulnerability in Pakistan: A Study of Devolution Failure and Local Government Disempowerment

Abstract

Pakistan once again endured the most destructive monsoon season due to high intensity of rain and flash floods. Devastating floods of 2022 and 2025 have exposed serious weaknesses in the governance structure of the country, explicitly the systematic marginalization and disempowerment of local governments. This paper investigates the nexus between political centralization, bureaucratic capture, and inadequate disaster preparedness and response mechanisms. Through a qualitative analysis of policy documents, administrative structures, and disaster management protocols, the study validates that the absence of functional local governance institutions pointedly aggravated flood damage across multiple provinces. The 2022 and 2025 floods caused massive damage to infrastructure, socioeconomic conditions, and lives.  The flood in 2022 swamped almost one-third of Pakistan's land, affected 33 million people in Sindh and Balochistan, and over 6.9 million people across Punjab and Sindh in 2025. These floods disproportionately impacted vulnerable communities due to persistent systemic failures to respond to early warning dissemination, allocating and sharing resources, and response to crisis at local level. This paper explores how the concentration of decision-making authorities at federal and provincial levels, coupled with limited or no financial autonomy of local bodies, has created a governance vacuum that challenges disaster resilience. The study determines that meaningful devolution of powers, strengthening of local governance institutions, and community-centric disaster management frameworks are essential for building resilient systems capable of mitigating risk of imminent natural calamities and adversities. The findings accentuate that effective governance requires institutional empowerment and citizens participation rather than centralized command-and-control mechanisms.